Let It Ride Guide · Part 6Advanced Strategy

Basic strategy gives you a reliable way to make the standard decisions in Let It Ride: you recognise the hand, compare it with the chart and decide whether the wager stays or comes back. Advanced strategy goes one step further. Instead of looking only at the category of your hand, you begin paying attention to the exact cards involved, the number of useful cards still available, the strength of your draws and the information that is legitimately visible during play.

That last point matters. Older Let It Ride material sometimes suggested trying to look at neighbouring players' concealed cards and adjusting your decisions from what you saw. Do not do that. If a casino's rules say another player's cards are private, treat them as private. Advanced strategy should be based on your own cards, the community card, openly exposed information and the actual pay table being used.

There is already plenty to work with. A hand that looks almost identical to another can have a different expected return because one contains an extra high card. A straight draw can change sharply depending on whether it has four outs or eight. A suited hand may move from poor to playable when enough additional ways of winning are present.

Basic strategy is designed to be easy enough to use at the table, which means it groups many similar situations together. Most of the time that works perfectly well. But some hands sit close to the line, and a small change in the cards may move the expected return from just below break-even to just above it.

That does not happen with obvious hands. The advanced decisions appear between the extremes: low pairs, three-card straight draws containing high cards, three-card flush draws containing high cards, three-card straight-flush draws and four-card straight draws. These are the hands where card composition can matter.

You do not need advanced calculations on every hand. A made hand stays, a poor hand goes, a four-card flush stays. If you hold Q♣ Q♦ 5♠ you have a made hand and the wager stays. If you hold 3♣ 6♦ 8♥ there is very little to debate. Save the thinking for the hands that deserve it.

A three-card royal-flush draw needs very little debate. You have three high cards, they are suited, and they are connected to the strongest possible poker hand. Even when the remaining cards do not produce the royal flush there are other ways for the hand to become profitable: you can pair a high card, complete a straight, complete a flush, or hit a straight flush. The combination of possibilities makes these hands considerably stronger than ordinary three-card draws. Let them ride.

High cards are more important in Let It Ride than they first appear. For strategy purposes treat 10, J, Q, K and A as high cards, because pairing any one of them produces at least a pair of tens or better. A high card is not merely useful for making a straight or flush — it creates additional winning cards.

Basic strategy normally tells you to pull back Bet 1 with a pair of nines or lower, and that remains a perfectly reasonable rule. But low pairs are closer to playable than many people assume.

Consider 7♣ 7♦ K♠. You already have a pair, but it does not qualify because sevens are below tens. Two community cards remain, and several outcomes can rescue the hand: another seven gives you three of a kind, a king gives you two pair, two additional kings can create a full house, and two matching community cards can create two pair or something stronger. Low pairs are not hopeless — they are simply not normally good enough to justify Bet 1 under ordinary basic strategy.

Now compare 7♣ 7♦ 3♠ with 7♣ 7♦ K♠. The pair itself is identical, but the king creates an additional way to produce a qualifying hand: a community king gives you 7♣ 7♦ K♠ K♥, two pair. The kicker can matter when you are examining exact expected value rather than merely following the broad low-pair rule. The effect is not necessarily large enough to overturn the normal decision by itself, but it is part of the calculation.

Once the first community card appears the situation becomes much simpler. Start with 7♣ 7♦ K♠ and look at what the fourth card does. The second decision should always be made from the four cards now visible, not from how the hand felt three cards ago.

Three-card straight draws are one of the areas where players often overestimate their hand. A hand such as 5♣ 6♦ 7♠ looks attractive, but two cards are still needed and there are many ways for the final hand to miss. The exact value depends on two things: how many ways the straight can be completed, and how many high cards are already present.

A draw's way count is simply the number of distinct five-consecutive-rank windows that contain all three of your ranks. The ace counts low in A-2-3-4-5 and high in 10-J-Q-K-A.

The strongest ordinary straight draws are the ones containing high cards. Consider 10♣ J♦ Q♥ — three qualifying high ranks, so any additional ten, jack or queen can create a winning pair. Compare that with 4♣ 5♦ 6♥, which is tightly connected but contains no high ranks at all.

Here is the part worth being precise about. Both hands are 3-way draws. 10-J-Q completes with 8 and 9, with 9 and K, or with K and A; 4-5-6 completes with 2 and 3, with 3 and 7, or with 7 and 8. Their straight structure is identical in strength. They differ only in high cards — and that is the entire lesson.

The advanced question is not simply “can I make a straight?” It becomes a short list of questions, and only the combined answer decides whether another wager is justified.

Three suited cards create another classic temptation. Suppose you hold 3♣ 10♣ K♣ — three clubs and two high cards. That is much more interesting than 3♣ 6♣ 8♣, which relies heavily on completing the flush. The first can also win by pairing the ten or the king. Both are three-card flush draws; they do not have identical value.

Once a fourth suited card appears the decision changes dramatically. If the first community card is 7♣ your hand becomes 3♣ 10♣ K♣ 7♣. Only one card is to come, and there are thirteen clubs in the deck of which four are already in front of you — 13 − 4 = 9 clubs remain, any of which completes the flush. There may also be additional winning cards that pair your ten or king. This is why a four-card flush draw is an easy Bet 2 decision.

Straight-flush draws combine two forms of value: the cards are suited and the ranks are also connected. Consider 4♣ 5♣ 6♣ — three clubs plus a strong three-way straight structure. Compare that with 3♣ 6♣ 8♣, still suited but with much weaker straight potential.

The three-card rule is short: keep a 3-way straight-flush draw; keep a 2-way draw when it contains at least one high card; keep a 1-way draw when it contains at least two high cards. Pull back weaker versions. That gets you very close to the correct decisions without long calculations at the table.

One step below those qualifying hands you may encounter a 2-way straight-flush draw with no high cards, a 1-way straight-flush draw with one high card, or a suited and connected hand that has lost one of its best completion routes because of an openly exposed card. These are the hands where exact composition matters.

The correct question is whether enough winning possibilities remain to justify the wager. Do not simply think “it's almost a straight flush” — “almost” has no mathematical value. Count what can actually happen.

Suppose you hold 3♣ 4♣ 5♣, a strong suited and connected starting hand with several straight combinations available. Now imagine legitimate exposed information shows that one useful club is no longer available: the number of possible winning combinations drops slightly, and if several useful cards are known to be unavailable it drops further.

That is the underlying principle advanced strategy uses. You are not changing the payout — you are changing the number of cards capable of reaching it.

Some older Let It Ride material told players to peek at a neighbour's hand and adjust accordingly. That advice is wrong and this page repudiates it. It is not advanced strategy — it is using information the game does not permit you to have.

If cards are openly exposed under the rules you can naturally take that into account; otherwise base the decision on the information available to you. There is still more than enough strategy to work with, and every other section on this page continues to work perfectly without a single glance at anybody else's cards.

Take 6♣ 7♦ 8♥ 9♠. Either a 5 or a 10 makes the straight — four fives and four tens, so eight straight outs. Under the standard 5-to-1 straight payout those eight cards alone create a very strong case for keeping Bet 2.

Now take 6♣ 8♦ 9♥ 10♠. Only a 7 completes the straight: four straight outs. That is a much weaker draw, and unless the hand has significant additional value from high cards it normally is not enough.

Take 10♣ J♦ K♥ A♠. Only a queen completes the straight and four queens remain, which sounds weak. But the hand also contains four high cards: three remaining tens, three jacks, three kings and three aces, creating 12 additional cards capable of producing a qualifying high pair. Those extra wins make the hand much stronger, and that is why basic strategy allows an inside straight when all four visible cards are high.

Look again at 6♣ 7♦ 8♥ 9♠. There are no high-pair possibilities at all — every rank in the hand is below ten — but eight cards complete the straight, which is enough to make the situation close to break-even under the traditional 5-to-1 schedule.

This creates one of the important comparisons in Let It Ride: an outside straight with no high cards, and an inside straight with four high cards. They look very different, yet both can sit close to the same expected-return line.

Suppose your outside straight is 9♣ 10♦ J♥ Q♠, which needs an 8 or a K — normally eight outs. Now imagine an eight is already openly visible elsewhere on the table. That card cannot become your final community card, so your straight outs fall from eight to seven. If a king is also exposed you fall to six, and the hand becomes weaker.

Now imagine the opposite. An exposed card is completely irrelevant to your hand: it does not complete your straight, it is not in your suit and it cannot pair one of your ranks. The number of possible final cards decreases while all of your useful cards remain available, which slightly improves the proportion of winning cards.

When evaluating a close four-card hand, do not count only the obvious straight card. Look for every possible final card that produces a paying result: straight outs, flush outs, high-pair outs, two-pair cards, three-of-a-kind cards, full-house cards and straight-flush cards.

Some cards may produce more than one possible description, but the final hand receives only the appropriate highest payout. Each final card must be counted once, according to the best hand it creates.

The arithmetic is simple; finding every winning possibility is the part that requires care. Use the same five steps every time.

Suppose you have an outside straight containing one high card: 7♣ 8♦ 9♥ 10♠. Straight outs are a 6 or a J — eight in total. But there are also three remaining tens, and any one of those produces a pair of tens, which qualifies for a payout.

So this hand is stronger than 5♣ 6♦ 7♥ 8♠. Both are outside straights; only one contains an existing high rank that can pair. That is the kind of small difference advanced strategy notices.

Compare three outside straights, each with the same eight straight outs and a different number of high ranks. Basic strategy may tell you to keep all three; advanced understanding explains why they are not equally strong.

You can build a shortcut for analysing borderline four-card straights, but the exact point system depends on the particular pay table and assumptions being used, so no point values are given here. A safer way to remember the idea is as a sequence rather than a formula.

Advanced strategy can become too clever for its own good. Once players start memorising point values for every situation, errors become easy. Was that card worth two points? Was the high card worth three? Does the rule apply to an inside straight or only an outside one?

At that stage the shortcut may create more mistakes than it prevents. If you want exact play, calculate the hands beforehand and build a reference chart. At the table the decision should remain simple: recognise the situation, check the rule, act.

Three-card calculations are more difficult because two community cards remain and the number of possible outcomes is far larger, so be careful about performing detailed expected-value calculations mentally.

A better approach is to classify the borderline starting hands — low pairs, high-card straight draws, high-card flush draws, straight-flush draws — and then use a chart built from complete enumeration of every possible pair of community cards. The four sections that follow work through each of those categories in turn.

Take 7♣ 7♦ K♠. There are several routes to a win: another seven, another king, two community cards of the same useful rank, combinations that produce a full house, combinations that produce four of a kind. Compare with 7♣ 7♦ 3♠, which has fewer useful routes.

The king version is therefore stronger. That does not mean every low pair with a high kicker should suddenly be kept — it means two low-pair hands can have different expected values. That is the advanced lesson.

Suppose you start with 10♣ J♦ Q♥, one of the strongest unsuited three-card straight structures: three high cards and several ways to build straights. Now compare 10♣ J♦ A♥ — still three high cards, but a much more restricted straight structure.

Be exact about the difference. 10-J-Q is a 3-way draw: 8+9, 9+K, or K+A. 10-J-A is a 1-way draw: it needs Q and K and nothing else. Both hold three high cards, so the high-card value is equal — the difference between these two hands is entirely straight structure. The cards look similarly strong to a casual player; the first hand has more ways to develop.

Take 3♣ 10♣ K♣ — two high cards and three clubs. Now compare 3♣ 6♣ 8♣ — three clubs and no high cards. The first can win through a completed flush and also through high pairs and various other combinations; the second relies far more heavily on the suit. Both are “three-card flush draws”; their exact value is not the same.

Four questions decide a straight-flush draw. How connected are the cards? How many completion patterns exist? How many high cards are included? How many useful cards remain available?

Consider 4♣ 5♣ 6♣, then 9♣ 10♣ J♣, then 10♣ J♣ Q♣. Here is the exact position: all three are 3-way draws, so all three are keeps under the 3-way rule, and their straight structure is equally strong. They differ only in high-card value — none, two and three high ranks respectively — and that changes expected return without changing the decision.

Do not ask only “what can this hand become?” Ask “how many cards can make it profitable, and what will each result pay?” That one change in thinking separates ordinary strategy from actual odds analysis.

Every casino hand can become something. The question is whether the number and value of the winning outcomes justify leaving money in action.

Sometimes the difference between two decisions is tiny. To show how small it can be, imagine one decision returning 99.8 percent and another returning 100.1 percent. Mathematically one is better; practically, the difference on a single small wager is extremely small.

Everything in advanced strategy depends on the payout schedule. Increase the straight payout and straight draws become more attractive. Increase the flush payout and suited hands gain value. Reduce the full-house payout and some paired combinations become slightly weaker. Change several payouts and the correct strategy can change in multiple places.

Every number on this page is calculated against the standard schedule below, where a straight pays 5 to 1 and a pair of tens or better pays 1 to 1.

Maximum payouts can also affect the mathematics. Suppose the table pays 1,000 to 1 for a royal flush and you are wagering $25 in each of the three main positions. All three active wagers would theoretically pay 3 × $25 × 1,000 = $75,000. If the posted maximum is $50,000, the cap bites.

The real royal-flush return is then no longer the amount printed in the ordinary pay table — the cap has reduced it, which lowers the expected value of hands that can reach the royal flush. At low stakes this usually does not matter; at higher stakes it can.

This is not a replacement for the basic chart on the strategy page — the decisions are the same. What it adds is the middle column: the thing advanced strategy actually looks at before making each of those decisions.

There is no benefit to making simple decisions complicated. Made hand — keep. Four to a flush — keep. Strong four-card straight-flush draw — keep. Obviously poor hand — pull back.

The time to think harder is when a hand sits close to the line. If a decision is nowhere near the line, extra calculation does not change anything.

Suppose your three cards are 8♣ 9♣ 10♣ — three clubs, a connected straight structure and one high card, the ten. As a straight it is a 3-way draw, which makes this a 3-way straight-flush draw, so Bet 1 stays under the appropriate strategy.

Then the first community card arrives, and you forget the first decision entirely and evaluate the four visible cards from the beginning.

Suppose you have 10♣ J♦ K♥ A♠, the four-high-card inside straight. A queen completes the straight and four queens remain, and pairing any of your four ranks also creates a winning high pair — twelve more cards — which gives the hand enough total winning possibilities to make it a very close decision under the traditional schedule.

Now imagine legitimate exposed information shows that one queen and one king are no longer available. You have lost one straight out and one high-pair out, and the expected return drops. That does not mean you need to calculate percentages mentally at the table — it means you understand why exact visible cards can alter a borderline wager.

Even perfect decisions do not change the nature of Let It Ride. You can make every correct choice and lose; you can make several poor choices and win. That is what variance does. Strategy changes expected results — it does not control the cards.

The purpose of advanced strategy is therefore modest, and it is worth being honest about what it is for.

Most hands do not need advanced treatment. Keep obvious winners, pull back obvious losers, and pay closer attention to borderline draws. High cards matter because pairing them produces qualifying hands. Outside straights generally have more straight outs than inside straights, and four high cards can make an inside straight much stronger.

Suited cards become more valuable when they are also connected. Straight-flush draws depend on both connectivity and high-card value. Different pay tables can change the correct decision. Legitimately exposed cards can change the remaining outs. Concealed cards should remain concealed. And every betting decision should be evaluated independently. That is the foundation of advanced Let It Ride strategy.